The just concluded two meetings "in the future, the government put forward 1025" five-year plan "should pay more attention to people's livelihood problem, pay more attention to the quality of growth, pay more attention to common people's fortune f feeling. Minsheng problems, happiness has become nowadays keywords.
March 20, 2008 in China and the world economy, tsinghua university, tsinghua university professor on otherwise the BBS LiDaoKui with the national development and reform commission foreign economic research institute i.a. Campbell, real estate in China YunChang vice chairman of the association, Beijing university professor regardless of national health economic association, vice President of experts will people ms universal concern of macroeconomic, housing, medical problem launch a heated discussion.
I.a. Campbell: C PI stability within very difficult in 4%
LiDaoKui: zhang director, you think Japan earthquakes and are upgrading to China this year of Libya crisis, and future economic operation of the people's livelihood? What challenges proposed reform
I.a. Campbell: personally, I think, in the economic globalization background, the more we integration, more and more interdependent, before talking about more efficiency, the Japanese events and Libya events to China, an alarm rang is a risk!
From the trade point, China has two trading system. A process based on division, characterized outside packet processing trade production system, this system and Japan, east Asian production network is integrated. In this case, both the Japanese earthquake, Libya's energy the lifeblood of uncertainty of the impact of the financial crisis, or the United States of some production system, can produce severe impact.
Another production system is based on differential division, the general characteristics of independent production and trade production system and this part mainly local enterprises. Local businesses are earthquake, Libya's uncertainty risk, and America's financial crisis effect will be smaller, but little not much. We will find, including lenovo and geely automobile, by the Japanese earthquake influence, because a lot of key components are in Japan's production. In this case, I think in terms of China, how can we build a globalization and integration situation better able to hedge risk a production system, I think this is the Chinese should be thinking of problem.
LiDaoKui: thank you very much! In your opinion, this year we national foreign trade surplus due to earthquake last year, relative to influence are rising or down?
I.a. Campbell: the year before our surplus is 1900 billion, last year was, I personally think, 1830 billion this year, according to situation at present, might be lower than last year. The reason is very simple, Libya's crisis will make oil, iron ore, food more expensive, Japan's major earthquake will make the whole supply chain more expensive, in this case, I think the impact may be exported than imports.
This year LiDaoKui: how much of the oil markets are subjected to Libya, the influence of battle? Your forecast is what?
I.a. Campbell: my prediction is very uncertain. The reason is very simple, Libya's war next will not spread to the gulf states, this is the worst place. Libya's own energy limited, a day also is million barrels a day, but if spread to the gulf states, namely the unrest endanger the whole Middle East oil lifeline, this problem will be very big. We know is mainly for oil, and currently expected effect of these problems, from oil currently expected the identity of the milestone, it should be said that the risk or larger.
LiDaoKui: in your opinion, this year the whole growth situation are subjected to Japan, how much influence of Middle East, north Africa situation? The more specific words, can affect how many percentage points?
I.a. Campbell: I personally think impact to China is 0.5 points, not more than 1 point.
LiDaoKui: this year, so a fluctuation situation, do you think what effect on price level? This year the government proposed control targets of about 4%, how do you analyze this situation?
I.a. Campbell: I estimate, prices, global oil prices rise in the price of resources on China's influence in about 30 to 40 percent between. Now, whether oil, iron ore prices, or food prices are close to be a crisis, before the bubble economy highs. In this case, I personally think input type inflationary pressures bigger, more severe. Even without incident to pull the price stability in 4% is very difficult within, plus the current complex external uncertainty in January, especially the impact of import growth more than 50%, price factors play an important role, so more pressure.
LiDaoKui: I summarize your statement, international economic situation fluctuations, including political situation negative fluctuations, the G D P 0.5, the effect of price influence also salience, so this year,xu zhi liang's blog a whole international situation than originally envisioned a bit worse of. By the end of last year the worse than a little imagination.
I.a. Campbell: yes.
GuYunChang: 2011 national house prices will decline
LiDaoKui: next, I think excuse me despite President. Could you explain to us, real estate situation? This year, be restricted to ease after people could see real estate revolutionary changes in prices?
GuYunChang: professor li said in the revolutionary change performance where? I don't think price is structure. Actually report has told the prime minister, over the past five years, 10 years, accounted for by security family total 7%, 8%, what is this concept? Is 1500 to 1800 million families to enjoy the government housing subsidies and protection, is such a change.
China's real estate market for at least two layer tasks, the first layer is drive economic growth, the past is G D P for the outline, now start with the people's livelihood for the outline, real estate growth is in G D P growth for the outline basis up. But it now seems that although real estate on Chinese economic promoting big, but on the other hand, what is the purpose of real estate development? Is to improve the livelihood of the people, is the central proposed live in, the UN says some adequate housing of everyone. Not to say that everyone have house property, but everyone a room to live. Should say real estate development is for everyone a room to live to everyone, adequate housing goals. China in this respect the advancing speed is a world-class level, live JianBu minister said, urban residents already reached 89% has its own occupancy, China's rural people the occupancy rate is 99% of, so we the self-owned occupancy rate is very high.
LiDaoKui: that why people reaction also so big?
GuYunChang: yeah, 89 percent of people have room to live.
LiDaoKui: that you mean to say our housing complaint is from 10% family?
GuYunChang: yes. I discovered that there are two kinds of people in the house is biggest complaints new employment worker. The first kind is after 80 graduates. The second is of migrants. Actually to housing problem complain large sure less than 10%. But the question why so serious? Because after 80 after graduation from the university, have very good momentum, but suddenly found that worked for several years later, salary is not low, housing is still not landing, security room was not qualification, commodity house can't afford, find a girlfriend, mother-in-law said married, house in where? There is no house, then wait. And this is just some residents network subject.
LiDaoKui: the central government pledged this year construction million sets security room mission possible? Are you afraid of ticky-tacky, bear not worried about area shrink, quality crisis bear not worried about happen? ...
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